So here is a basic guideline that you can use to project penetration of a particular release of Flash:

@3 months = 30 - 40%
@6 months = 55 - 65%
@9 months = 80 - 85%
@12 months = 90+%

Or an easier way to think about it in my opinion:

# months x 10 for the percentage as a general rule of thumb.

http://weblogs.macromedia.com/emmy/archives/2007/08/need_a_way_to_p.cfm

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